【ベトナム株式大復活の最新記事】
2009年04月04日
ベト株上がってきました！
ベトナム株式も上がってきました。世界中で上がっているので、VNだけというわけではありませんが。BVSは１３０００が２５０００になりました。１か月で２倍近いということです。
2009年02月17日
いよいよ買場！
今度はOK。買い推奨です。大底の入り口です。もう少し下がったとしてももう多寡がしれています。
2008年12月13日
大底をうったのか？
2008年11月26日
2008年04月05日
値幅制限1日２〜３％では、面白くない！
多分今年世界で最悪のベトナム株式の底割れ・大暴落の為に、１日の値幅制限が導入されて、これまでのHCM５％ハノイ１０％が２〜３％になってしまいました。暴落の過程では、１日１０％のストップ安が続いて、大底を打ったあたりで今度は値幅制限を導入するとは、ベトナム政府はやっぱり自由市場を理解していない。これで、ストップ高連続の毎日１０％上昇の醍醐味が味わえなくなりました。
ベトナム市場のようなそもそもリスク選好・大儲け指向型の欲の突っ張った投資家が向かう市場でこのような計画経済的アンチ自由市場政策を導入するのは勘弁してもらいたいです。値幅制限が無くて１日で３０％くらい暴落する個別銘柄もあるNYSEを見習ってほしいです。
というわけで、値動きが殆どないので、ベトナム市場の結果を毎日見ることも無くなりました。きのうもおとといも市場がどうなったか小太郎は知りません。週一くらいのチェックで十分となってしまいました。
ベトナム市場のようなそもそもリスク選好・大儲け指向型の欲の突っ張った投資家が向かう市場でこのような計画経済的アンチ自由市場政策を導入するのは勘弁してもらいたいです。値幅制限が無くて１日で３０％くらい暴落する個別銘柄もあるNYSEを見習ってほしいです。
というわけで、値動きが殆どないので、ベトナム市場の結果を毎日見ることも無くなりました。きのうもおとといも市場がどうなったか小太郎は知りません。週一くらいのチェックで十分となってしまいました。
2008年03月22日
不動産市況も早くも悪化！
ベトナムの金融引締策で以下の記事によると不動産市況も既に悪化しているそうです。株式市場の底割れと不動産市況の悪化による逆資産効果が出そう。一方で米国経済が景気後退に入れば、繊維・履物・水産等の地場の輸出産業がダメージを受けるし、事務機器･電子部品・自動車部材等の米国向けの外資の工場進出がストップします。そうすると昨年度の長者番付一番のKBCのオヤジも工業団地が売れなくなってきて、ベトナム経済も５年以上前に逆戻りです。株価も5年前のOTC時代の株価にまで戻るかもしれません。今の底割れから更に半値になるとしたらぞっとします。今や、頼みの綱は米国株価の回復、つまり米国株式のトレンドの逆転がほしいです。
15 measures to rescue real estate market
16:48' 21/03/2008 (GMT+7)
VietNamNet Bridge The HCM City Real Estate Association (HOREA) has sent a dispatch to the HCM City People’s Committee, the Government Office and relevant ministries, suggesting 15 measures to rescue the stock market and ensure the sustainable development of the market.
According to Le Hoang Chau, Deputy Chairman of HOREA, the real estate market is worsening as a result of monetary policies and tentative tax policies.
Meanwhile, according to HOREA, there exist overlapping and unsuitable legal regulations, owing to which the real estate market cannot develop well.
Investors need to mobilise capital soon
Under current regulations, investors of real estate projects can only mobilise capital from the public after they finish building the foundations of buildings. The regulations, according to HOREA, are too strict.
HOREA thinks that investors should be allowed to mobilise capital after they finish site clearance and pay land use fees.
Recently, in order to arrange enough capital to run projects, several investors have thought of issuing bonds to raise funds for their projects. Real estate firms need the concrete guidance of management agencies in order to ensure the benefits of involved parties.
As for the current mechanism on approving housing projects, HOREA thinks that it is not necessary for state management agencies to approve projects that do not use state budget funds. HOREA has suggested that the state should only approve state-funded projects, while investors have the right to decide private run projects themselves. State management agencies should only consider issues related to urban planning, the infrastructure and the environment.
HOREA has asked for favourable conditions for investors to prove their financial capability by accepting different ways for them to do that. For example, enterprises which have already finished site clearance compensation should be allowed to increase their capital before implementing projects; and enterprises whose capital is guaranteed by banks, investment funds or credit institutions all should be considered as meeting the requirements for capital.
No need to impose progressive tax at this moment
According to HOREA, the hottest issue now in the real estate market is the news about the possible imposition of a progressive tax (tax rates will be progressively higher on the 2nd, 3rd and more houses).
HOREA thinks that it is not necessary to impose the progressive tax at this moment; but also said that it should not be imposed on houses in rural and mountainous areas.
(Source: PL TP HCM)
15 measures to rescue real estate market
16:48' 21/03/2008 (GMT+7)
VietNamNet Bridge The HCM City Real Estate Association (HOREA) has sent a dispatch to the HCM City People’s Committee, the Government Office and relevant ministries, suggesting 15 measures to rescue the stock market and ensure the sustainable development of the market.
According to Le Hoang Chau, Deputy Chairman of HOREA, the real estate market is worsening as a result of monetary policies and tentative tax policies.
Meanwhile, according to HOREA, there exist overlapping and unsuitable legal regulations, owing to which the real estate market cannot develop well.
Investors need to mobilise capital soon
Under current regulations, investors of real estate projects can only mobilise capital from the public after they finish building the foundations of buildings. The regulations, according to HOREA, are too strict.
HOREA thinks that investors should be allowed to mobilise capital after they finish site clearance and pay land use fees.
Recently, in order to arrange enough capital to run projects, several investors have thought of issuing bonds to raise funds for their projects. Real estate firms need the concrete guidance of management agencies in order to ensure the benefits of involved parties.
As for the current mechanism on approving housing projects, HOREA thinks that it is not necessary for state management agencies to approve projects that do not use state budget funds. HOREA has suggested that the state should only approve state-funded projects, while investors have the right to decide private run projects themselves. State management agencies should only consider issues related to urban planning, the infrastructure and the environment.
HOREA has asked for favourable conditions for investors to prove their financial capability by accepting different ways for them to do that. For example, enterprises which have already finished site clearance compensation should be allowed to increase their capital before implementing projects; and enterprises whose capital is guaranteed by banks, investment funds or credit institutions all should be considered as meeting the requirements for capital.
No need to impose progressive tax at this moment
According to HOREA, the hottest issue now in the real estate market is the news about the possible imposition of a progressive tax (tax rates will be progressively higher on the 2nd, 3rd and more houses).
HOREA thinks that it is not necessary to impose the progressive tax at this moment; but also said that it should not be imposed on houses in rural and mountainous areas.
(Source: PL TP HCM)
ベトナム株式大暴落よりも重要なことは？
ベトナム株式の大暴落で、小太郎は一喜一憂・右往左往する毎日ですが、この底割れの理由はインフレ退治のための金融引締政策ということであれば、インフレが沈静化するまで、完全な金融緩和をしないので、それまでは、株価低迷が続くと言うことになります。短期投資家は、これだけ下がると値ごろ感でナンピン買いをしているでしょうが、買っても更に下がって含み損が増えるという悪循環に陥っていることでしょう。何を隠そう小太郎も先日の暴下げの直後にSSIを88000ドンで買い増ししましたが、今では6万台で、ここ数日で２５％の含み損発生です。ベト株の買場は、金融政策の緩和がいつか、そのためにはインフレの沈静化がいつかというのを見極める必要があるでしょう。
以下の記事を見ると金利が瞬間的に２５％にも高騰したと書いてありますが、金融引締策の結果なので短期的には已む無いですね。対米国ドルでVND上昇の中で、インフレが進み労働者の賃金が高騰すると、ベトナムへの海外直接投資･工場進出が減退することになります。自律経済のテイクオフがまだ完了していないベトナム経済ですので、海外直接投資がベトナム経済の高度成長の根本原因で、これが止まる時は、大問題、ベト株長期投資家もベトナムから撤退する時です。ベト株市場の毎日を追うよりも、ベトナム向け直接投資の動向を追う方がもっと重要です。株式市場が低迷することよりも、インフレ率が下がることのほうが、あるいは海外投資を左右するそのほかの要因の動向のほうが、長期投資家にとっては、より重要です。
Fighting inflation: Vietnam and China take different measures
16:46' 21/03/2008 (GMT+7)
VietNamNet Bridge High inflation is the same problem for both Vietnam and China, but the two countries are taking different measures to settle the problem. While Vietnam focuses on monetary policies, China has put forward eight groups of measures.
The State Bank of Vietnam has been taking a lot of measures to tighten monetary policies in order to curb inflation. It has issued VND20,300bil worth of compulsory bonds, raised state banks’ basic interest rates, raised the compulsory reserve ratio, and has been purchasing foreign currencies at a moderate level.
The said moves have had big impacts on the operation of commercial banks and led to a lot of side effects.
The capital shortage has become more and more serious with the interest rate once hitting 25-27% per annum.
Under the government’s instructions, the State Bank of Vietnam and Ministry of Finance will join forces to transfer the government’s money now kept at five state owned banks to State Bank branches for management.
The transfer of VND52tril is believed will have big impacts on the monetary market. Experts say that the move may cause the lack of VND25tril for the banks, worsening the banks’ liquidity.
Also aiming to curb inflation, the State Bank of Vietnam has asked commercial banks to limit loans for real estate and securities investments, and tighten consumer credit.
The State Bank of Vietnam has urged commercial banks, which provided loans with mortgaged stocks, to ask for more mortgaged assets from clients as stock prices are decreasing. If clients cannot give more mortgaged assets, commercial banks have to force them to bargain shares away to terminate credit contracts. As a result, a big volume of money has been flowing from the stock market to commercial banks’ coffers.
Commercial banks have nearly stopped loaning to securities investors; this is considered one of the main reasons behind the stock market’s continued falls in the last time.
Lacking capital for production and business, which may lead to production stagnation and lower competitiveness, higher unemployment, continued falls of the stock market, are all consequences of the tightened monetary policies.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government has put forward six groups of measures to fight high inflation, which include: (1) encouraging production expansion, especially the production of key products like food and foodstuffs (2) controlling tightly industries which use food and foodstuffs as materials (3) strengthening its storage system, controlling imports and exports, stabilising domestic prices. Moreover, it has also thought of measures to give allowances to poor people and control its distribution network to prevent massive price increases.
(Source: TBKTVN)
以下の記事を見ると金利が瞬間的に２５％にも高騰したと書いてありますが、金融引締策の結果なので短期的には已む無いですね。対米国ドルでVND上昇の中で、インフレが進み労働者の賃金が高騰すると、ベトナムへの海外直接投資･工場進出が減退することになります。自律経済のテイクオフがまだ完了していないベトナム経済ですので、海外直接投資がベトナム経済の高度成長の根本原因で、これが止まる時は、大問題、ベト株長期投資家もベトナムから撤退する時です。ベト株市場の毎日を追うよりも、ベトナム向け直接投資の動向を追う方がもっと重要です。株式市場が低迷することよりも、インフレ率が下がることのほうが、あるいは海外投資を左右するそのほかの要因の動向のほうが、長期投資家にとっては、より重要です。
Fighting inflation: Vietnam and China take different measures
16:46' 21/03/2008 (GMT+7)
VietNamNet Bridge High inflation is the same problem for both Vietnam and China, but the two countries are taking different measures to settle the problem. While Vietnam focuses on monetary policies, China has put forward eight groups of measures.
The State Bank of Vietnam has been taking a lot of measures to tighten monetary policies in order to curb inflation. It has issued VND20,300bil worth of compulsory bonds, raised state banks’ basic interest rates, raised the compulsory reserve ratio, and has been purchasing foreign currencies at a moderate level.
The said moves have had big impacts on the operation of commercial banks and led to a lot of side effects.
The capital shortage has become more and more serious with the interest rate once hitting 25-27% per annum.
Under the government’s instructions, the State Bank of Vietnam and Ministry of Finance will join forces to transfer the government’s money now kept at five state owned banks to State Bank branches for management.
The transfer of VND52tril is believed will have big impacts on the monetary market. Experts say that the move may cause the lack of VND25tril for the banks, worsening the banks’ liquidity.
Also aiming to curb inflation, the State Bank of Vietnam has asked commercial banks to limit loans for real estate and securities investments, and tighten consumer credit.
The State Bank of Vietnam has urged commercial banks, which provided loans with mortgaged stocks, to ask for more mortgaged assets from clients as stock prices are decreasing. If clients cannot give more mortgaged assets, commercial banks have to force them to bargain shares away to terminate credit contracts. As a result, a big volume of money has been flowing from the stock market to commercial banks’ coffers.
Commercial banks have nearly stopped loaning to securities investors; this is considered one of the main reasons behind the stock market’s continued falls in the last time.
Lacking capital for production and business, which may lead to production stagnation and lower competitiveness, higher unemployment, continued falls of the stock market, are all consequences of the tightened monetary policies.
Meanwhile, the Chinese government has put forward six groups of measures to fight high inflation, which include: (1) encouraging production expansion, especially the production of key products like food and foodstuffs (2) controlling tightly industries which use food and foodstuffs as materials (3) strengthening its storage system, controlling imports and exports, stabilising domestic prices. Moreover, it has also thought of measures to give allowances to poor people and control its distribution network to prevent massive price increases.
(Source: TBKTVN)
2008年03月04日
ベトナム株式、本当の底抜け、怒涛の下げ！
2008年03月02日
ベトナム政府当局の金融引締政策の緩和が大事！
年初来のベトナム株式の大暴落は東証やニューヨークや上海に比べてもずっと激しいわけですが、原因は段々はっきりしてきました。年率１０％を瞬間的にははるかに超えるインフレ対策、即ち国民の大多数をしめる一般市民・貧困層対策で、ベトナム政府が金融を引き締め過ぎたのが主因です。これは当然党本部の指示ですが、やりすぎに気づいたようです。多分、ベトナムドンの供給再開等少し政策転換するでしょう。
とすれば、皆さん思うとおり、今が仕込みの機会かもしれません。ベトナム人投資家はチョットすぐにはダメージから立ち直れないかもしれませんが、懐の深い外人はバンバン買い続けられます。
下の記事をみるとＴＰＧもＶｉｎａもベト株を買い続けると書いてあります。
Foreign investors take advantage of falling stock prices
13:23' 29/02/2008 (GMT+7)
VietNamNet Bridge The declining stock market is proving an advantage to medium and long term investors who are buying potentially valuable shares for low prices.
Trading boards lit in red as indexes continue to dip
The Government’s goals for 2008 is an economic growth rate of 8% to 9% and inflation below that, a stable exchange rate encouraging export, and a bustling stock market.
However, as the second month of this New Year comes to a close, the reality of this year’s economic challenges are beginning to take shape: inflation is through the roof (12.63% in 2007), and there is an at-capacity real estate bubble.
The central bank responded by withdrawing VND20tril from circulation, a necessary move to curb inflation, but it is also revaluating the VND against the dollar and adversely impacting the stock market.
The Government is now getting hit from all sides, under pressure to improve every economic facet. Commercial banks are all trying to raise deposit interest rates, raising the lending interest rates, thus putting a heavier financial burden on businesses.
However, despite the challenges, investors still see long-term potential in the stock market. And savvy investors know the market’s falls is only to their advantage.
“We will still invest in Vietnam’s companies,” said Andy Ho, Managing Director of Vina Capital, adding that though share prices have fallen, they remain relatively high.
Short-term investors are struggling, they are responding to the market rather than anticipating it. Tim Dattles, an investor with wisdom and who hunts for subtle opportunities is Managing Director of TPG Capital, a big private investment fund from the US; he says TPG is still hunting for stock of rising companies in Vietnam and China.
Vietnam is an attractive market. However, stock prices were inflated in 2007 and there was a supply shortage. TPG has an eye on Vietnam’s bourse and knows it is likely to rise in the coming time, he said.
Experts say that for medium and long-term investors, Vietnam’s portfolio investment market is full of opportunities.
There is also some concern that the wallowing US economy may negatively impact Vietnam, as big international investors may restructure their investment portfolios and reduce investments in small and changeable markets like Vietnam.
Ho from Vina Capital said that he cannot anticipate how foreign investors will responded to the decline of Vietnam’s stock market. Vina’s last fund raising took was in November 2007 in London, when Vietnam’s market hadn’t yet hit its point of fastest decline.
(Source: SGTT)
とすれば、皆さん思うとおり、今が仕込みの機会かもしれません。ベトナム人投資家はチョットすぐにはダメージから立ち直れないかもしれませんが、懐の深い外人はバンバン買い続けられます。
下の記事をみるとＴＰＧもＶｉｎａもベト株を買い続けると書いてあります。
Foreign investors take advantage of falling stock prices
13:23' 29/02/2008 (GMT+7)
VietNamNet Bridge The declining stock market is proving an advantage to medium and long term investors who are buying potentially valuable shares for low prices.
Trading boards lit in red as indexes continue to dip
The Government’s goals for 2008 is an economic growth rate of 8% to 9% and inflation below that, a stable exchange rate encouraging export, and a bustling stock market.
However, as the second month of this New Year comes to a close, the reality of this year’s economic challenges are beginning to take shape: inflation is through the roof (12.63% in 2007), and there is an at-capacity real estate bubble.
The central bank responded by withdrawing VND20tril from circulation, a necessary move to curb inflation, but it is also revaluating the VND against the dollar and adversely impacting the stock market.
The Government is now getting hit from all sides, under pressure to improve every economic facet. Commercial banks are all trying to raise deposit interest rates, raising the lending interest rates, thus putting a heavier financial burden on businesses.
However, despite the challenges, investors still see long-term potential in the stock market. And savvy investors know the market’s falls is only to their advantage.
“We will still invest in Vietnam’s companies,” said Andy Ho, Managing Director of Vina Capital, adding that though share prices have fallen, they remain relatively high.
Short-term investors are struggling, they are responding to the market rather than anticipating it. Tim Dattles, an investor with wisdom and who hunts for subtle opportunities is Managing Director of TPG Capital, a big private investment fund from the US; he says TPG is still hunting for stock of rising companies in Vietnam and China.
Vietnam is an attractive market. However, stock prices were inflated in 2007 and there was a supply shortage. TPG has an eye on Vietnam’s bourse and knows it is likely to rise in the coming time, he said.
Experts say that for medium and long-term investors, Vietnam’s portfolio investment market is full of opportunities.
There is also some concern that the wallowing US economy may negatively impact Vietnam, as big international investors may restructure their investment portfolios and reduce investments in small and changeable markets like Vietnam.
Ho from Vina Capital said that he cannot anticipate how foreign investors will responded to the decline of Vietnam’s stock market. Vina’s last fund raising took was in November 2007 in London, when Vietnam’s market hadn’t yet hit its point of fastest decline.
(Source: SGTT)
2008年02月24日
VNインデックスのV字回復はいつ？
年率１２％にもおよぶインフレ退治のために、ベトナム政府は厳しい金融引き締め策を継続中で、金（VND)を市場に出さないという基本政策をとっています。証券市場が低迷することよりも国民全体に影響の大きい物価抑制がよりプライオリティの高い政策課題という位置付けですから、先週のベトナム株式市場の大暴落も已む無しです。下げが下げを呼んベトナム人投資家はパニック状態ですが、この間に外人は買い継続です。先週は、５００万株も外人が買い、前週の倍だそうです。VNIndexが６５０ポイント程度に落ちても８５０ポイントにV字回復すると言っている人もいます。
Securities foreign investors refer buying
18:39' 23/02/2008 (GMT+7)
VietNamNet Bridge Foreign investors bought close to 5 million shares and fund certificates in the week between February 18 and 22, doubling the figure they did the previous week, while the stock market experienced a slid.
They disbursed more than 392 billion VND into the stock market in the reviewed week, compared with only 230 billion VND between February 11 and 15.
“What we are seeing here is panicked local selling. Despite the sell-off we are seeing considerable foreign buying,” Director in charge of transactions of Mekong Securities Dickon Verey commented.
He went on to note that considering the current PE rate, the market is starting to look fairly reasonable.
“They are continuing to buy. Foreign demand, after all, hasn’t been in question,” he confirmed.
Sharing the view with Dickon Verey, Head of the Consultancy Department of Vina Securities Hoang Vu Binh agreed that a number of investors took the time as suitable for buying but declined to give any prediction for the market development.
“We might see volatility down to 650 points on the VN-Index but then I expect a sharp rally that could well take us up to between 800-850 points. This would be a result of local buying and or a sustained foreign buy programme,” Dickon said.
VN-index dropped more than 17 percent since the beginning of this week, sliding to 687.1 points as reported at the close of the February 22 trading session.
(Source: VNA)
Securities foreign investors refer buying
18:39' 23/02/2008 (GMT+7)
VietNamNet Bridge Foreign investors bought close to 5 million shares and fund certificates in the week between February 18 and 22, doubling the figure they did the previous week, while the stock market experienced a slid.
They disbursed more than 392 billion VND into the stock market in the reviewed week, compared with only 230 billion VND between February 11 and 15.
“What we are seeing here is panicked local selling. Despite the sell-off we are seeing considerable foreign buying,” Director in charge of transactions of Mekong Securities Dickon Verey commented.
He went on to note that considering the current PE rate, the market is starting to look fairly reasonable.
“They are continuing to buy. Foreign demand, after all, hasn’t been in question,” he confirmed.
Sharing the view with Dickon Verey, Head of the Consultancy Department of Vina Securities Hoang Vu Binh agreed that a number of investors took the time as suitable for buying but declined to give any prediction for the market development.
“We might see volatility down to 650 points on the VN-Index but then I expect a sharp rally that could well take us up to between 800-850 points. This would be a result of local buying and or a sustained foreign buy programme,” Dickon said.
VN-index dropped more than 17 percent since the beginning of this week, sliding to 687.1 points as reported at the close of the February 22 trading session.
(Source: VNA)
